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Long-form notes on Blood Bowl analytics, rating systems, and prediction models.
Beyond Elo
Beyond Elo: Building a Blood Bowl Rating and Prediction Model is a three-part series about separating coach and roster strength, modeling draws as their own outcome, and using team value where it is available.
- Part I: The Core Rating Model
- Part II: Learning Draw Tendency
- Part III: When Roster Strength Depends on Team Value
To Block or Not to Block?
To Block or Not to Block? examines whether blocking is a persistent coaching style once roster effects are separated out.